Let us imagine a Cuba without a blockade: 100% literacy, an enviable geographic position at the center of the continent, 30–40% of the population composed of professionals, access to credit and loans without hostility, and popular support approaching 87%.
This sketches what, in political theory, would be called a regional welfare power. If we remove the variable of hostility while preserving social achievements, the projected scenario is not only logical—it also explains why Cuba is viewed as such a dangerous threat to the status quo of certain sectors: because the success of that model would signal the end of the neoliberal paradigm in Latin America.
Under those conditions (universal literacy, massive professional human capital, and commercial peace), Cuba would operate with competitive advantages that few countries in the world possess.
The Engine of Human Capital (The Greatest Advantage)
That 30–40% professional population is, in economic terms, a high-value asset.
Knowledge economy: Without the blockade, Cuba could become the technological and scientific hub of the region. Its biotechnologists and doctors would not only save lives but also generate patents and massive foreign exchange earnings by exporting high-tech services and products without financial obstacles.
Professional efficiency: A country where an engineer or scientist has access to cutting-edge tools and credit to launch enterprises would almost certainly become a net exporter of added value, rather than merely of raw materials.
Geographic Position: From “Key to the Gulf” to Logistics Hub
Without U.S. hostility, the Port of Mariel and the island’s logistics infrastructure would become the most important transshipment center in the Caribbean.
Cuba would cease to be an isolated island and instead become the natural bridge between Europe, North America, and the Panama Canal. Its enviable position would shift from being a geopolitical threat to becoming a commercial goldmine.
The Factor of Popular Support and Stability
Strong popular support in a context of economic prosperity would eliminate what critics label as “authoritarianism.”
If the system succeeds in meeting material needs while building on its previous social achievements, social cohesion would be unbreakable. No external destabilization campaign would gain traction in a population that enjoys healthcare, education, and, in addition, a dynamic and sovereign economy.
Analysis of the Core Question (The Counter-Argument of “Power”)
If this scenario appears so clearly successful, the intellectually rigorous question is: Why is the blockade maintained with such intensity?
The answer reinforces the point: the blockade exists precisely to prevent that scenario from taking shape.
If Cuba were to prosper without the blockade, it would demonstrate that a non-capitalist system can be more efficient, educated, and equitable than the model promoted by Washington.
Therefore, the blockade is not meant to “punish failure,” but to force it. The aim is to distort the foundation (as stated earlier) so that the example of success becomes impossible to materialize.
End of Part 2
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